Sunday, August 31, 2008

 

Atletico madrid vs Malaga

Must admit I don’t know too much about Malaga’s team for a simple fact I haven’t heard of any of their players. But I do know Madrid very well. I am taking this bet simply because I cant see Madrid getting away with anything less then a win and IMO the handicap should be at least -1.25.
They got back in the champs league this yr and have some very good attacking players. Aguero had a great Olympics and he is going to be match fit and rdy to go. Adding to the fact they have already played a couple of competitive game against a very good schalke team. I just think the home side is going to have too much for Malaga.
They simply looked electrifying and to beat schalke 4-0 in a champs league qualifier, its really impressive.
The only thing that worries me is the lack of creativity from the midfield so against better teams they could struggle, but today the forwards will be good enough to carry them through.
I simply cannot see anything other then I win so I will go into this one with high stake

Hwin -1.0 @1.72

Win another 4-0 result from the Madrid side. As a liverpool supporter I am getting a lil scared by their form and our chances to progress in the champions league.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

 

Hugo cazares vs Ivan calderon

This is a rematch between the two boxers at light flyweight. Calderon won the first fight with a spilt decision and was knocked down in the 8th. I think the odds are quite fair for this fight but there is no doubt that in my mind there is only going to be one winner and that will be calderon.

Make no mistake about it cazares is a dangerous boxer, has a 5inch height advantage over calderon and superior punching power. (Cazares 26w 19tko and 4 loses. Calderon 31w 6 tko and 0 losses.0

But when it comes to speed and boxing skills and brain then there is no doubt that calderon is the much better boxer. In the first fight. Calderon took control from the get go and out boxed cazares from the inside to take the early rounds. I think then he got complacent and allowed cazares to slowly get back into it.

Hugo was very aggressive and got the knock down of which calderon then looked hurt for the rest of the rds. After that it was one way traffic again as calderon knows he cant slip up and started moving again and sticking to what he knows best.

I think hugo has given all he had in the first fight and still couldn’t win. Calderon will be a lot smarter this fight and I rate this a 80-20% fight in favour of calderon. Hugo is quite a tough guy not to mention he is a lot taller, adding to the fact the calderon is not much of a puncher. A pts win for ivan @1.66 looks real good value and a sure win in my mind.

If hugo was to win then it will be by tko @3.75. If your not certain then go ahead and put a small stake to back yourself


Go to my blog for advance preview of Lee castle vs Graham earl. Boxing in my opinion is the easiest sport in the world to make money (because its corrupt and filled with miss matches and stupid odds. (remember floyde was 1.5 to beat hatton??? And more recently margarito was 5.00 to stop cotto??? Both of which I got right and was certain win in the case of floyde) especially if you have the inside news. My mate is a good frd and sparring partner of Lee so this review is guaranteed to bring you some extra pocket money. J Watch the space.

stake 9 units @ 1.66 for calderon pts win at bet365.com

WIN. Well I did gurantee this win. Calderon dominated and won by TD due to a accidental clash of heads. Good news is because of this. There could be another rematch.

 

Chelsea vs tottenham

Spurs have started off slow this season; they are really struggling in every department at the moment. They have looked poor in their opening two games and the anticipated departure of their best player berbatov is not going to help their clause. I know a lot of spurs fans had high hope for them mainly from their preseason form and the arrival of some very exciting young talents.
But what they have to realize is that keane and berbatov was the focal point of all their plays. Whenever those two play well, spurs win games and that is a fact.
I think if those two had stayed then they would be a real force this season, however with their departures they are really going to struggle, well for a little while at least until they can adapt to the new players.
Chelsea are going really strong at the moment and I can easily see them winning by more then 1 goal. Spurs midfield looks abit light weight and I expect them to really struggle against a world class Chelsea midfield.
They like to play a direct short passing game but against a teachical and physical Chelsea midfield they will really struggle to win and keep hold of the ball. Last seasons 3-3 thriller between these two sides saw keane and berbatov involve in all their plays and goals. If they struggle with their passing game then they can always knock the ball up field to berbabtov and let him hold the ball up and pick out passes. But now with just Bent up front, I struggle to see spurs scoring this game. Bently and bale can hit as many crosses as they want but bent is not going to beat terry or carvalho to the ballExpect Chelsea to dominate this game in the midfield and shut out an in transition young spurs team

9 units 2.00 -1.0,1.5 home win

 

Middlesbourgh vs Stoke

Let in 2 against villa and 3 against Bolton need I say more? Lol. Fortunately for you I not going to just base my prediction on previous results and like to break things down to ensure maximum chance of winning.
Well lets start with stoke they got out played in the first game and needed a world class goal and a bit of fluke to come away with a win against villa. Villa to me was a very inconsistent team last season especially on their travels and that seems to be their problem still.
They were very average but still managed two goals against this stoke defence. All the goals stoke gave away so far has been sloppy as oppose to good work. I really don’t think they will manage 3 goals in a game many times this season and if needing 3 goals to win a game is what they are relying on then the are going to be in deep trouble.

Middlesbrough on the hand have started the season really well and to came away with a deserve win and a underserved away lost to two sides whom many predicted will finish in the top 5. The defence is solid and have plenty of width and quality up front. I must admit I had a lot of doubt over Southgate at the beginning of his Boro managerial career but he has done very well and bought very wisely. The only thing I am concern with is their consistency.
Last season they played very well against top of table sides but struggled at times against the lower teams. I am going into this one with a slightly lower stake then I would because of their inconsistency but I still think they will be raring to go after a underserved lost and start firing on all cylinders again.
Stoke face letting in another 3 goals in my view. Easy home win is my bet.

8 units @2.125 -1 home win

even final score 2-1, was spot on in this game. Boro dominated without playing well and should have won by alot more

 

Midtjylland VS Manchester City

Well the first leg saw man city go one goal down and more importantly the all important away goal. They did well on sunday winning 3-0, produced a good display and carved out chances. But thats after west ham had been down to 10 men.

Without a experienced and recognised striker, i can still see them struggling against a more determined and well drilled defense.

Midtjulland are very very quick and very well drillled. They have a great domestic home record. and with city struggling with away form. I really like midtylland's odds here. 1.90 is way too hard in my opinion. I think the home side definately should be more favourite then just a coin toss. so i am going to go for home team to qualify

unit 8 @ 1.90 home team to qualify
lost result 0-1
really upset at losing this bet as many ppl predicted man city but i was spot on with my prediction. city got a lucky 89min won goal and went through. guess i was just out of luck.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

 

Hull vs Wigan

Should be an interesting game. Hull has started the season with 4pts from 6 against a Wigan team yet to pick up anything.
It’s been a positive start for hull but I don’t expect it to last. In my opinion they were very lucky in both of their games to come away with anything. In the first game against Fulham, they produced a spirited come back having been dominated and the game should have been dead and buried before half time. But they rode their luck and with the home crowd cheering them on, managed to sneak the game.

At Blackburn again they was lucky, Blackburn had so many chances and if the home side had been more solid at the back and a little bit more luck in front of goal then I am sure it would have been very different.

Hulls defence at times look like Sunday league pub team standard. The ease at which they were carved open should be a very worrying sign for their fans. You also have to take into account both teams they played are very mediocre and not the strongest at the back. One team only managed 2 away win all of last season and the other is on a transition period under new boss.

Wigan on the other hand on the back of two undeserved defeat against two very good sides, is a very good and organised team.
They will be a very tough team to beat at the JJB this season, they are physical and hard working. The back four is well protected and in the opening two games they showed they could play very good football and match the best in Chelsea.
The only thing that does concern me with Wigan is the lack of goals. The term not very prolific for the midfield quartet plus Heskey is an understatement. Wigan relies a lot on set pieces and bundles as oppose to the prefect goal. So with the misfiring front line a lot will depend on their new signing Zaki. So far he has impressed me. Very hard working and has great technical ability. He and Kapo are the biggest goal threat for Wigan.

Hull has been lucky and I don’t rate them any better then derby of last yr. Wigan can win this game if they can score the goals. I am going into this with a slightly lower stake because Hull seems to be finding the net somehow at the moment. And wigan’s defence is not as solid as it is at home. But I still think the away team will have too much class for a championship team.

Unit 6 away 0.0 handicap. @1.95

WIN. final score 0-5. was spot on with y prediction. Hull will struggle this season.

 

My reviews

My reviews take time, effort and a lot of research. My record is not by luck but by careful analysis and knowledge of the game at a respectable level. Being a keen sports person myself and playing various sports. Over the years you will get an idea on players mentality and how they are going to approach each game with the different situations.
Understanding this is very important because it will help you analyse how the game will plan out and make the predictions more accurate.

I like to approach each game and break it down to every detail to ensure myself the maximum chance of winning. It could be £1 or £100 pound on the line. It doesn’t matter!! I would still want to win.

I wouldn’t lie gambling involves a bit of luck. Without it and you will struggle. However, with my tips I would like to think of winning as a predictable thing and losing is just merely bad luck. As oppose to winning is all based on luck. Its important to understand this, otherwise sports betting is not for you. You might as well go bet on black or red on a roulette table.

 

Buy reviews

Each week I will post my tips on betshoot.com and various football related websites. However I will not be posting all my tips on there and they will appear only 30min or so before in most cases, if at all!!!

However you can buy my tips on each match for as low as £2. This will give you plenty of time to make up your decision and make a bet.

There are also money back guarantee matches from myself for £3. This is marked with the label MBG. What this does is that I can guarantee you my tip will come through or you will get your £3 back and a free tip of your choice. This option is only available in MBG matches and if you wish. You can just pay £2 instead and not take out the MBG option but of course that means if it loses then you will not get your £2 back.

A list of all the games I aim to give tips on will have a title on my blog and probably the first paragraph. The rest will have to be bought or wait till just before the kickoff to see.

Why pay money for my reviews? Because I have a excellent record. What’s two pound when you it can win you much, much more? Come give it a try!! You will not be disappointed. J

Make payment through www.paypal.com to jacklamuk@yahoo.co.uk stating which game you wish to receive review for.

Discounts are available for purchasing block reviews. Email me for price. Thanks

Monday, August 25, 2008

 

Liverpool vs Standard Champs league qualifier

I am a huge Liverpool fan. Ask me if we will win by 3 goals here and I will tell you absolutely no chance. When Liverpool have been playing the way they have been playing, betting against them on handicap is almost certain win. If you did that in the first 2 premiership game like I have done then you would have done well both times. Bookies always think a club like Liverpool, winning these games will be easy so always give a very generous handicap to the opposing side and this is a prime example.

Liverpool have been poor so far but have got off to a maximum point start which I must say am relieved because that at least have given our players some believe and maintain a winning mentality, which is ever so important.

I watched the first game and we rarely freighting the Belgium’s goal. We just looked poor, lack ideas in attack and was out played. There wingers gave us plenty of problem because of Liverpool’s must publicized lack of wingers in the team. Whoever plays out there tends to drift in and not only does that mean we are narrow in our attacks but also means our full backs are isolated. (not good because I can probably skin our full backs)
They had some young wingers with plenty of pace and desire, got crosses in the box and was a constant threat all night.

Bottom line is if we should have lost 3-0 away without creating much of anything, then I don’t expect us to win by 3 goals 2 wks later. I think Liverpool will win but the if the score line is anything more then 1 goal 2 I would be very surprised. I am actually more worried that they will come into this game more focus and determined. Upset is not likely but I wouldn’t rule it out.

10 units away +2

WIN result 0-0

 

Aresnal VS Twente Champs league qualifier

Going to put this out early has I don’t see anything changing and I want to take the odds whilst it stays high because I see it dropping real soon. After the first leg with Arsenal 2-0 up I expect this game to be slow tempo with Arsenal happy to keep possession and just concentrate on the league again. This season they have started off slow, mainly because the center midfield has gone missing. Eboue and Denilson will struggle to out play some of the midfield partnerships in the championship let alone the premier league. With the way Arsenal plays, it has always been important to have good central midfielders that are clever, compose and good on the ball. Eboue and Denilson just don’t have the class to make this Arsenal side click. This is clear to see in there last 2 games wining 1-0 and losing 1-0 with minimal no. of chances created.
Twente now managed by steve maclaren, former England coach looked ok in the first game. They didn’t really deserve to lose, however they didn’t create too many clear cut chances. Bottom line is if you don’t create chances at home then your not going to score at the emirates. I expect plenty of possession for the home side and wengers men to do a professional job and see this one off 1 or 2 nil.

total 6 units

6 units on under

Lost result 4-0

Saturday, August 23, 2008

 

Single bets or accumulators

Many people like to bet on accumulators i.e. linking more then one bet together to obtain better odds. Sure when you hit your going to make a lot more money. But I am a big fan of statistics, and betting on asian handicaps a team not only has to win but they also have to cover the spread. I believe that even if you break everything down and your certain of something your still going to need a lot of luck. So I reckon the chance of a certain win is actually only about 75% of winning.Now put that into an accumulator and you will see below how lucky you need to be to get a win:1 match = 75%2 match = 56%3 match = 42%4 match = 32%You get the drift basically the more matches you accumulate the less chance you have of winning. Bearing in mind 75% win record is really high and that’s only for one bet.Sometimes its worth putting in a small stake on accumulators every so often to test your skills and add to the excitement but anything over 5 unit is not recommended and if you do it regularly then you are sure to be a bookies best friend.

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How it works

For each game I aim to break down all the statistics and according to how confident I feel about the game I will stake a unit of between 1 to 10.Of course how much you wish to gamble or put on the game is entirely up to you. But this is a format I recommend to everybody and if you can stick with it then I am sure you will make money in the long run.So this is how it works at the start of each month depending on how I get on I will determine how much each of my unit is going to represent.Once I have determined say £4 each unit then I will stick with it until I build up a big enough bankroll to increase my unit stake up. It’s always tempting to put extra money on a game that you feel totally confident of winning. But in gambling there is no such things as a sure win.So once you set a stake, stick with it because in the long run, you will find that your sure wins will miss every now and then and the money it cost you will take a lot more wins to make up.This is an example:Say for instance my unit stake is £4 and my win record is 75%. I double my stake per unit for a sure bet and stake 10 units on it and lost. So now I am £80 down. Now in 10 matches if I stake an average of 7 units. I will have made 28 units. £112 because of that one lost I am now down to £34 and all it takes its another slip up and my winning record would still mean I have lost money.

 

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Introduction

Hey everyone my name is Jack, I am a regular 24 yr old guy from England and in this blog I aim to give my personal insights to being a successful sports bet gambler. My speciality and success comes from football betting mainly the domestic British leagues and the champions league. NBA and Boxing is also where I have had huge success in the past.

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