Saturday, September 27, 2008

 

Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla

I haven’t been impressed with sevilla this season, they don’t seem to be the same side with the departure of Ramos. And all too often they look shaky and have conceded far too many goals all too easily. Some key players have left the side during the summer and they are struggling to adapt with the new personnel. Madrid on the other hand is growing from strength to strength, the home form has been really impressive and their ability to finish chances makes them a very efficient side and difficult to beat.
History between the two sides has favoured the home side and games between these two are always entertaing with the attacking players both sides have on show.
However I just feel with the Morale high and with the home side playing so well at the moment. I really cannot see Sevilla coming away from this game with anything.

Madrid(-0.25)@1.85 with bet365.com

Lost




Wednesday, September 24, 2008

 

Picks for 27-09-08

Charlton vs Sheffield Wed

Why the odds are so high for Charlton to win this game I do not know but that’s what makes the Championship more profitable then the EPL. Odds for the Championship are a lot more attractive because the gap is closer between teams. With that said I still don’t understand how they can give this handicap for Charlton to win the game.
Sheffield Wed has been shipping goals left, right and centre. I watched Charlton a couple of times this season and at home they are really impressive.
I haven’t seen much of Sheffield Wed but I know this Charlton team is going to be very tough to beat at the valley. To do that you have to out play and out attack them and there is not many teams in the championship that can do that. Sheffield wed is certainly not one of them.

Unit 8 Charlton (-0.5) @ 1.95 with bet365.com

Everton vs Liverpool

Well!! Same old story with Liverpool, beat Man u then draw with Stoke. I don’t think they were complacent but they did lack the energy the team normally gives against bigger teams.
Merseyside derby is a huge game and will get the players focused again. I really can’t see Everton winning this game because their defence has been shocking this season. It lacks pace and all too often the gap between the midfield and the defence is too big.
I expect Torres to really explore the gaps between the defences and get back to scoring ways again. With the exception of Cahill and the inform Yakubu, Liverpool really doesn’t have much to worry about.
The only question surrounding this game is can Liverpool finish their chances and put the ball in the net.
But Everton has been really struggling on the defensive end and Liverpool’s defence is not going to be the same as Hulls. With all that being said I really expect Everton to struggle this game and Liverpool to come out as comfy winners.

Unit 8 Liverpool (-0.25) @ 1.75 with bet365.com

Monday, September 22, 2008

 

EPL Weekend 27-09-08 picks

Picks for the coming weekend:

Subscribe now to get my picks for the following weekend games listed below:

EPL

Arsenal vs Hull – detailed review LOST
Everton vs Liverpool WIN
Manchester utd vs Bolton – detailed review WIN
Stoke vs Chelsea WIN
Wigan vs Man City – detailed review HALF
Aston Villa vs Sunderland WIN

Championship

Reading vs Swansea WIN
Charlton vs Sheffield wed LOST

You will only find my picks displayed on my blog and http://www.brainbetting.com/ for the Liverpool and Charlton game.

Subscribe to my blog now Free for a 3-week trail period and you will get all my picks emailed to you. Enjoy!!!

Friday, September 19, 2008

 

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You will get all my picks at least 1 to 2 day before kickoff so it allows you plenty of time to make your bet.
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Extended preview example:

Hull vs Everton 21-09-08

Preview:

Well I will keep saying it, Hull is getting very lucky right now and they are playing sides at the right time and picking up some very important points, they will need it because I don’t expect it to last as the season progresses.
But I do expect them to score goals so I guess if your scoring then there is always a chance.

Everton has been very different to last season and I am sure Moyes is very frustrated with the team right now.
Last week they were 2-0 up at stoke, in total control but then managed to let them get back into it and was lucky to come away with all 3 pts.
They look really shaky at the back, which is not what you will associate with Moyes’s sides, but I am sure that problem will be solved as the season progresses.

Everton have Cahill back and that’s a welcome boost since much of the goal scoring threat was relied on Yakubu. Cahill is a very important player for them and I expect him to chip in with a lot of goals this season.
I watched the mid wk draw against standard liege, which was a very open game and Everton players looked very tired at the end of it.

I think again Hull has picked the perfect time to play Everton, their defence looked very shaky and although Hull is nowhere near as good as the Belgian champions. I still expect them to play a very high tempo game and put Everton under a lot of pressure.
The key comes down to how Everton approaches this game, if they think this game is for the taking and go gunho then I am certain I will win my bet and Everton possibly losing this game.
IMO they need to stay compact and try to catch Hull on the counter.

Record signing Fellani should be back in the starting lineup for this encounter but with the weather expected to hit the 20’s you just have to wonder how much is left in the tank for this lack of depth Everton side.

Hull’s confidence will be high after last wks away win. I expect them to score goals against a leggy and shaky Everton’s defence but IMO they have the worst defence in the EPL and I just can’t see Everton not scoring with that said I will take this game to go over.

Possible starting lineup:

Hull City: Myhill, Mendy, McShane, Gardner, Dawson, Geovanni, Marney, Ashbee, Halmosi, King, Windass.

Everton: Howard, Neville, Yobo, Jagielka, Valente, Osman, Cahill, Castillo, Arteta, Yakubu, Vaughan.


Score prediction: 2-1

Betting tip:
over 2.0/2.5 with bet365.com

Stake: 8

Last 3 match results:

Newcastle 1 2 Hull Everton 2 2 Standard Liege
Hull 0 5 Wigan Stoke 2 3 Evertom
Swansea 2 1 Hull Everton 0 3 Portsmouth

Recent Head to head: -

Key players missing: Everton – Saha, Achiebe, Pineear. Hull - Fagan


Expected weather: Sunny, 21 Celsius

 

Atletico Madrid vs Recretivo huelvo

I really like this Madrid team even if they did lose me money against PSV. They have players I really like. Packed with exciting talents and real eye for goal upfront with Aguero and Forlan. They have been stuffing teams at home so far this season and a lot has been down to taking their chances and being very efficient on the break away. This was shown in the CL in mid week where the choice of passes was excellent. They knew what they was doing and converted the chances when it came their way.
Aguero will be a very good player and certainly another Torres in the making. I know Recretivo will try and contain Madrid in this game but I just cant see them doing that for 90mins.
They have been keeping the score low so far and IMO will be doing very well to come away from this game with a low scoring defeat.
With the morale high and on back of a great win, I expect nothing less then a home win, especially when they just lost their last game in the PL.

Stake 9 Atletico Madrid (-1) @ 1.95 with bet365.com


WIN

 

EC weekend 20-09-08

Coventry vs QPR

QPR got a great result at Norwich of which along with Champs league football was a freaky night all around and I am sure the bookies was smiling all the way. With Norwich firing on all cylinders I was really surprised they managed a clean sheet.
Coventry has been suffering with form of late but draws in their last couple of games against better and more compact sides in the league in Shef utd and Preston is by no means bad results especially with the squad at Coventry.
I am a big fan of Chris Coleman, he drills his sides well and they are always difficult to beat. He gets his side motivated and that what I like about this Coventry team. Talents concern QPR is far the superior but 2 away wins in 4 days are surely too much for Iain Dowie’s men.


Stake 7 Coventry (0) @ 1.87

Bristol city vs Doncaster

Well both these teams work very hard off the ball and have excellent fitness. Bristol city I have been impressed with as they pressure from high up, get back to defence fairly quickly and seems able to maintain the tempo for most of the game and that has been the key to the success so far this season.
Doncaster rarely threatened Birmingham’s goal last week just as I expected and I really don’t expect them to put city’s defence under too much pressure this game either.
I think City will see this game as a opportunity for maximum points. They have been impressive so far and the manager will definitely see this as a game they must win. Whilst admitting Doncaster are a difficult team to break down. I still see the home side finding a break through in 90mins.


Stake 7 Bristol City (-0.5) @1.95


Birmingham vs Blackpool


Well Birmingham are winning games they have a 100% record at home but they need to start scoring more goals and kill of teams or sooner or later they will get punished.
But I don’t expect Blackpool to be that team. Blackpool has done ok this season. A little inconsistent and much depends on confidence has you would expect from a newly promoted side.
But the home side is probably a couple of leagues above them and I don’t expect the back four to be under too much pressure.
I think blackpool will stick to counter attacking football even if they go 1 or 2 goals down so I don’t expect Birmingham to win by a lot of goals. With the trend of their score lines at the moment I am going take exactly the same bet I placed on them last week.

Total stake 10, 8 unit Birmingham (–1) @1.825, 2 unit 1-0@6.5 and 2 unit 2-0 @ 6.0

 

EPL Weekend 20-09-08

Sunderland vs Middlesbrough

Sunderland was lucky last week, had it not been that early own goal by Bramble I am sure Wigan would have beaten them. But credit to them they hung on and carved out a couple of chances themselves.
They play better attacking football at home and it’s only a matter of time before they click into gear and really pile on the pressure on visiting teams. Summer signing should start to gel and Cisse carries a real goal threat.
Middlesbrough has some work to do still but they are a very talented team and I really like some of their players. Tuncay should be back for this game and he is the key to Boro’s attack. They have scored every game so far this season and I expect that to continue.
Again with both sides attacking qualities I will take this to go over.

Stake 7 Over 2.5 @ 2.075


Hull vs Everton


Well I will keep saying it, Hull is getting very lucky right now and they are playing sides at the right time and picking up some very important points, they will need it because I don’t expect it to last as the season progresses.
But I do expect them to score goals so I guess if your scoring then there is always a chance. Everton has been very different to last season and I am sure Moyes is very frustrated with the team right now.
Last week they were 2-0 at stoke in total control but then managed to let them get back into it and was lucky to come away with all 3 pts.
They look really shaky at the back, which is not what you will associate with Moyes’s sides, but I am sure that problem will be solved as the season progresses.
Everton have Cahill back and that’s a welcome boost since much of the goal scoring threat was relied on Yakubu. Cahill is a very important player for them and I expect him to chip in with a lot of goals this season.
With Hull’s eye for goal and Everton’s shaky defence in mind I will take this game to go over.

Stake 8 Over 2,2.5 @ 1.9

West ham vs Newcastle


Newcastle are in trouble I was spot on with my prediction last week as the entire team looked all over the place and was caught on counter on a number of occasions.
I think West Ham play very similarly to Hull but with much more talented players. If they give the space to Bellamy and Ashton like they did last week they will be punished again.
West ham would be my pick for this game but with all the managerial changes they have themselves this game could be a pick’em.
It is also known they don’t travel to the capital well, maybe because of the long journey time etc. But with all that being said they still have quality players on the attack and west ham is leaking goals left, right and centre at the moment.
Having the attacking minded Zola as the new manager is hardly going to convince me they will tighten up at the back.
My main bet is to go over but I really think west ham can take this game here.

Stake 9 Over 2.5 @ 2.05


Liverpool vs Stoke

I think the bookies are taking the mick a little with the AH line. Whilst I really expect Liverpool to beat stoke by 2 goals in this game there is really just no real value in it.
Liverpool has been winning ugly and that has definitely lifted the sides confidence and they seem to be playing better and better.
Torres and Gerrad is back so I expect more goal threat, Riera is a sound signing but the defence has been a little shaky this season. Teams are creating chance against Liverpool but are just not finishing it.
Stoke to me are favourites for the drop but they have real goal threat. Keeping Fuller and Kitson healthy will be key and they can mix things up with pace and aerial ability.
I am going to have a punt at the correct score only for this game with the odds looking a lot better then over or win on AH

Total unit 6.
Stake 2 Liverpool 2-0 @ 6.00, stake 2
2-1@8.50, stake 2 3-1@11.00 with bet365.com

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

 

CL qualifiers Celtic vs Aab Alborg

The home side have a fully fit squad to choose from and on a European night I expect nothing less then a home win. Samaras is a player I have always liked and good news for Celtic is that the talented player seems to be enjoying his football and compliment Hesslink very well.
I don’t know much about their opponents but from what I know they are struggling a bit with form at the moment. Is not good sign since they are going to a side that won all their home games in the CL last season.
Playing in front of a sell out crowd and against a side as experience as Celtic. I really don’t see Alborg getting anything from this game. Their 4-2 win at the weekend was very impressive and I expect them to be even more switched on for this game.
They can attack from left, right and centre, play very direct and it’s the ability to mix things up plus the voice of the home crowd which gives them good results continually against some of the top sides in Europe.
I think Gordan Strachan’s team have a decent chance in this group but they know in order to qualify for the next rd then they must ensure they win all their home games. Alborg is easily the worst team in this group so a victory is vital.
The key comes from the first goal and as I don’t see Celtic not scoring I am going to take this with high stake.

Unit 9 @1.75 –1.0 with bet365.com

 

CL qualifiers Man u vs Villarreal

Just as I expected on the weekend they looked tired and leggy and was outworked by Liverpool and lost deservedly. I think tonight’s game couldn’t come at a better time. I don’t think the lost would have affected them too much and a CL night at home will certainly keep the focus of the players again.
Berbatov is doubt for this game but at least Ronaldo is back and that will certainly boost the morale of the home side.
Villarreal are no pushovers they have some very exciting talent and Senna just had a excellent tournament for Spain, where to me he was their best player. I think they are talented and well drilled but don’t really have much natural talent especially at the back. Both Nihat and Rossi is out for this game and I think their main focus will be to shut down Man u and try to hit them on the counter.
I expect Villarreal to defend deep without being too adventurous but personally I don’t think that’s the way teams should play against Man u because they have too many good players and sooner or later they will find a break through.
If Ronaldo is at 70% best for this game then I will be certain Man u will take this game. Fergie will get the players fired up again and 3 pt in the opening game is of massive importance because the away trip is going to be very tough. Also with Celtic’s excellent home record, qualifying from this group will be harder then the bookie suggests.

Unit 8 @2.1 –1.0 with bet365.com

 

CL qualifiers Porto vs Fenerbache

I haven’t been impressed with Fenerbache so far this season. I know Aragones took Spain to the title this summer but I still don’t like him. And he simply does not have the talent he has at Spain to make his system work.
Spain managed to keep teams at bay mainly because of Senna and not the actual defence itself. Fenerbache doesn’t have a player like him in midfield or a Gk in Casillas and their results have shown their weakness at the back.
Porto has always been a tough side to beat and one of the better starters to the competition, maybe because the Portuguese starts a little earlier. Especially at home their style of football puts team under all sorts of pressure.
Movement at the front is brilliant and they have a very gifted but inconsistent Queasma out wide that can always create moments of magic. My fav player is Lucho though, the little Argentinean is a genius and I expect him to carve this Fenerbache defence open and give the home side maximum pts.

Unit 9 @1.80 –0.5 with bet365.com

Saturday, September 13, 2008

 

Juan Marquez vs Joel Casamayor

Odds for this fight are criminal, everybody keeps writing off Casamayor but Joel is a great fighter and he comes good every time. Personally I think Joel is 60-40 favourite for this fight and 50-50 at best so for Casamayor to win this fight @3.75 is absolutely ridiculous.
I don’t really rate Maqruez, he is a boring arse fighter but I have to give him to him, he’s defence is good and he does have a decent chin. And most importantly he wins fights.

Marquez also fights very well against southpaw and that might be the reason why he is a huge favourite for this fight.
Pacquio is also a southpaw and Marquez in his last fight certainly gave whom many rates as the best lb for lb fighter right now a tough time.
But as I have said before styles makes fights and Casamayor is going to bring a new style of fight to this match. Although they are similar height, Joel has a huge frame and a longer reach. He will be much bigger then Marquez on fight night and will be the biggest opponent he has ever faced.

Casamayor is slick and boxing abilities wise is better then Marquez. I expect Juan to get out boxed and the only way I see him winning this fight is by knockout. Joel has a granite chin so I really don’t think that will happen. Personally I don’t understand the odds, like I said is a 50-50 fight at best so I am going in this one with a high stake and high hope.

Unit 8 Casamayor to win @4.00 with bet365.com

Lost: Joel was winning until being stopped for the first time in lat rds.

 

Joan Guzman vs Nate Campbell

Well Nate Campbell the defending champion goes into this title fight as a massive underdog. Amir Khan has been calling Nate out before his embarrassing win against Micheal Gomes. Then he finally realised what everyone realised ages ago that getting a silver in the Olympics don’t mean crap and that he is just a celebrity boxer.
Nate is a very modest man especially for a boxer and when he says he will knock amir khan out inside 3, he aint joking either. Nate is a great fighter and a respected champion. Technically fantastic and has respectable punching power to go with a good chin. So why is the champion 3.75 to take this fight?

Well that’s because his opponent is the real deal and he is better then Campbell in every aspect of his game.
El pequeno Tyson has he calls himself might not have the knock out power of his idol but he still punch very hard and like his idol is a real entertainer. His speed is phenomenal. And I have seen this guy hit flush by punchers a lot bigger then Nate and he just took it like nothing happened. His chin is simply iron and for a boxer that’s something you can’t teach and when someone has a jaw like his and speed and technique to go with it. Then you know that’s a champion in the making.

Nate has great abilities and a lot of idiots out there are saying because he is 36 he wont have much left in the tank and somebody like amir can certainly take him. Well I am sorry if anyone puts his age into the equation then they know jack all about boxing and should simply just be quite.
What people don’t realize is that in boxing if you haven’t been in wars then your body can last a lot longer and stay in a lot better shape. Nate is a very fit guy and he hasn’t been in any war at all. He turned pro when he was 28 and being the smart boxer that he is. He hasn’t taken any punishment at all, which means he is a lot fitter now then for example ricky hatton was 2/3 yrs ago.
But with all that being said, I simply cannot see the champ beating this guy. You can get Guzman straight win at 1.53. 1.72 by points and 7.00 by tko. Straight win IMO is a certainty but to get better odds you might wanna take him to win by points.
Joan’s ko win has dry up some what lately and Nate hasn’t been stopped since 2005. So a pts win is likely but I think there is a strong possibility he might get stopped. I would say the chances are 75-25% in favour of pts win so how you take this bet is up to you. Good luck.

Unit 10 @1.53 with skybet joan guzman win

Fight cancelled

Friday, September 12, 2008

 

Blackburn vs Aresnal

My banker of the weekend

Well before the season started I doubted whether Paul Ince is fit enough for this job. After a impressive opening game to the season I did worry a little because I predicted they will finish in the bottom half of the table. But 3 games in and my confidence is back.


Ok they didn’t deserve to loose 4-1 to west ham but the one thing that worried me most is the lack of organisation at the back. Something that would never happen if Mark Hughe’s was in charge.
I still don’t doubt Blackburn’s ability to score because they have so many great attacking players but against a more resilient defence you really have to wonder if they will outscore the other team to take all 3 points. Its still early days yet but unless Paul Ince can adapt real quick he is going to find his team with a losing streak and lack of confidence will start to creep through the team.
Aresnal have just started playing football again and scoring the goals. Fabregas presence clearly lifted the side and it’s clearer to be seen.
I am a little surprise Nasiri has settled in so quickly and he is a little greedier then most other wingers Aresnal have had recently and I think that is good for them because they always try to score the perfect goal and sometimes they just make too many passes and the chance is gone. I think his 2 goals already prove that, and show he has a real eye for goal which is a great sign.
I don’t think Blackburn playing at Ewood Park is the same under Ince then it is for Hughes. I really fancy Aresnal to take this one and the match to go over. So I am going in with a high stake.

Make sure to check out my blog and also writing for brainbetting.com as well now. Be sure to check it out for my exclusive boxing reviews.

Unit 9 away @1.80, -0.5 with bet365.com

WIN


 

Liverpool vs Man u

Well I have said it before I like nothing better then a challenge so with the world backing Man u to beat Liverpool, I am going to take the home side.
Liverpool has many critics and when we are not performing I have to admit to joining the line. However poor Liverpool’s performance might be this season, results means a lot more.
Whilst I have to agree that on paper and the history between the two sides in recent yrs suggests Man u should come away with a win, I see it very differently.

I have to admit under normal circumstances I would probably back Man u as well. But I have reasons to believe Liverpool will sneak this game even with the possibility of not having both Gerrad and Torres.

My main reason being that this game is a early kickoff and comes at the back of international matches in midweek.

Man u will no doubt suffer more from the international break then Liverpool, many of their players played the full match for their respective countries on Wednesday night and you just have to wonder if they have the stamina to tackle Liverpool at Anfield.
Also being a early kickoff doesn’t help Man u either. Being a footballer myself I know what the couple of hrs in the morning makes, adding to the fact they need to travel etc. Having home advantage has a big factor to play.

It’s also expected to be sunny and in the early 20’s which makes it even more difficult for the players.
Lets face it neither team is firing on all cylinders in front of goal at the moment and has with 8/10 big games it will finish under the goal line so under is my main bet here but I also expect the home side to be a lot sharper and fitter and possibly sneak this one.

Total 8 units, 5 units under 2.0 @1.90 and 3 units AH liverpool win @1.98 with ladbrokes

 

Birmingham vs Doncaster

Well I wouldn’t lie I don’t know a lot about this Doncaster side. I have seen them play against Derby this season and I know a few of their players but not really enough to make a judgement.
Against Derby they looked really organised and stubborn.
With Sullivan in goal they certainly did look a difficult side to break down and it has certainly shown with their results. Its obvious the manager is trying to build a side that’s difficult to break down and try and pick up most of their points at home. So don’t expect them to be too adventurous if they get the first goal.
I am going to take Birmingham for this game because I think they are one of the 3 contenders for the title this season and have the most talented squad in the league. I just can’t see many teams coming away with pts at St. Andrews.
Also with no disrespect to Doncaster’s forwards but Hayter and Guy is not up to the standards IMO and against the same defence that was going up against the likes of Rooney and Tevez last season, I just cannot see them scoring.
I do feel the handicap is a little high though to I am going to cover 1-0 and 2-0 as well to ensure maximum profit.

Total 8 units

2 @ 7.00, 1-0
2 @ 6.5, 2-0
4 @ 2.1, –1 home win all with bet365.com

Thursday, September 11, 2008

 

Wigan vs Sunderland

Well I was spot on with Wigan last time around and I will back them again this game. Whilst admitting the handicap is a bit high because since on their good days I don’t think there is too much in it between these two sides. I still believe Wigan will be too strong at home for this Sunderland team.


Big surprise so far this season for Sunderland is that they seemed to be playing a lot better away from home. They don’t strike me as a good away team because they are a little short at the back and the forwards are not consistent so it has been a surprised that their only win so far has come away from home.


With all that being said don’t be fooled by the results. IMO they have been pretty poor so far and has clearly not got things going yet. This might be partly down to all the changes in the team and new players coming in.
The win against spurs might look impressive on paper but Spurs were very poor that game and sunderland won the game without playing very well.


Wigan I have been very impressed with so far, providing they can keep their key players healthy then JJB will be a very tough place to go. Football is direct and creative plus they have plenty of pace down the wings and a hard working front two. I don’t think sunderland deals with pace from wide too well and they certainly will struggle to deal with the physical presence of Heskey.
Lets not kid ourselves here by looking too much into their only away win and think they will come good again. If Sunderland was to avoid relegation this yr then much will be relied on their home form again and not away from it.
The only thing I am concern with is the unpredictable front two they now have in Diouf and Cisse. Those two on their days can be brilliant and its players like them that make the game unpredictable.
However morale is high right now and I expect Wigan to take this one



8 Unit -0.5 Wigan win @2.1 with bet365.com

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

 

EPL Tottenham vs Aston Villa

Well Spurs got a very lucky but at the end a deserved draw away at Chelsea. If it wasn’t for that lucky deflection to Bent there is no way they would score. They hardly threatened the Chelsea’s defence but their back four was absolutely awesome.
Gomes looked very good in goal and made no mistake about it, although Spurs are known as a attacking team. Keeping King and Woodgate healthy will be the key to winning games. They are definitely one of the best defensive partnerships in the EPL and it showed against Chelsea.
The home team are desperately missing their attacking threats from last season in Malbranque, Keane and Berbatov though.
Roman Pavluechenko is expected to make his debut and will be a welcome addition to the depleting frontline. He is a very impressive player but whether or not he can cut it in the EPL is another question.
I personally believe he will struggle to have 60% of the impact Berbatov had in his first season. But providing he can reach close to that mark then he will still have plenty of time to improve and will prove to be a real steal.

Well we all know about Villa and their inconsistency. They love to play attractive football that’s why they struggle to get results away from home.
They are just not solid enough and because you always expect the home team to create chances a lot of the time they find themselves behind and chasing the game. Villa will be a dangerous and unpredictable team this season. I expect their players to be more motivated and concentrated against the bigger teams but less so against the lower teams. With that said I think they will switch on this game against Spurs.

However I just feel that the handicap is in Tottenham’s favour and I have no doubt had Spurs not struggled so far the handicap will be a lot higher. I think the results against Chelsea would have given them more believe to kick start the season and they will be more hungry for their first win in front of the home crowd.


7 units home win –0.25 @ 1.80 with bet 365.com

Monday, September 08, 2008

 

Amazing offer

For my joan guzman vs nate campbell prediction. I will personnelly refund 40% of your stake up to £200 if my prediciton is not correct. That's how certain I am of winning. Contact me for terms and conditions.

 

Newcastle vs Hull

Well originally I thought Newcastle would be sure bet for this game but with all the drama in the past couple of wks it has clearly affected the players and that was shown with their performance against Aresnal. Without a manager and with all the fans against the board, it looks to be trouble times at Tyneside. However Newcastle has some real quality players on attack and without a manager I expect them to be less organised but nevertheless more potent on the attack.
Lets face it most players prefer to attack then to track back and with players like N’Zogbia, Gutierrez, Owen and Martins. They will always get chances.

If you have read my past previews, you will know what I think about Hull’s defence or lack of it. But they do create chances, every game they seemed to create a few really good chances which is a good sign for them because they are creating and seem able to put the ball in the net. With all the points made and with the apparent lack of defence quality from the two sides, I expect an open game therefore I am going to take over for this game

7 units over 2, 2.5 at bet365.com

 

Portsmouth vs Middlesbrough

Two very even sides go head to head in this fixture. Portsmouth got a great result in their last game after a slow start and Middlesbrough has looked very good so far this season. Portsmouth to me was a little fortunate to win by 3-0 at Everton. It was just one of those days where Defoe was on fire and nothing was going in for the home side.
To be honest although Portsmouth did kind of deserve it, it was one of those games where it could have been so much different.
Middlesbrough I always feel are one of those sides that gets more fired up when they are the underdogs. So I expect them to be really up for this game and get a result.
Both team plays a similar style of football and on their days I think only home advantage can give the other team the edge. But right now Middlesbrough just looks sharper in every department from defence to attack. I am taking Middlesbrough for this match because I just cant see them not scoring at the moment but I really cant’ say likewise for the home team.
I have been far from impressed with Portsmouth so far this season and they are yet to play the sort of football I expect them to.
I think Portsmouth plays well when they are unselfish but one thing I have noticed from end of last season and carried to the beginning of this season is that the passing and trust is just not there.
Once they get frustrated their midfield will want to carry the ball more and more. Middlesbrough frustrates team better then anyone else. That is the reason why they perform against better teams.
There is a possibility last weeks win have woken up the home side and they will get back to playing their best but still IMO this is a handicap that’s too hard to cover. I even expect Middlesbrough to win this game but for my record I am going for away team +0.5
Main reason for my bet: There are no way Portsmouth merits this handicap base on this seasons performance so far.

Unit 7 @ 1.85 +0.5 away team

Friday, September 05, 2008

 

Amir Khan Vs Beridis Prescott

Well I said it before and I will keep saying it Amir khan is a bum and its only a matter of time before the bubble bursts for this celebrity boxer. He is way over rated and protected to a level that’s just sickening.
All the idiots out there that doesn’t know boxing might be fooled by his celebrity boxing talk and fighting style but unless you really know boxing then just be quiet.
He has signed with sky and again they are matching him with a nobody in Prescott. He has been bought in from the wilderness and was simply picked because of his record. 19 win and 17 knockout.
Sounds impressive doesn’t it? That’s exactly what sky and his promoter wants the general public that doesn’t know a lot about boxing to think.
But ask yourself this, sky just signed him to a multi million pound deal. So do you really think they will match him with an opponent they know khan couldn’t beat? Of course not!!
They along with Frank Warren will milk as much money out of him as they can and luckily for khan he will make enough money in this period to last him for the rest of his life.
17 out of 19 against nobodies, I could have a 19 out of 19 record if the guys I am fighting get knocked out every time they fight. Catch my drift? Records don’t mean nothing if the qualities of your opponents are rubbish and that is exactly the sort of opponent khan as been fighting.

When I first saw this offer from sky bet I knew I had to give it a punt. He is 4/1 to get knock down at some point during the fight. Whilst knowing his opponent has no chance of winning unless he can spark Khan clean out (possible chance of that happening with khan’s glass jaw). Khan getting knocked down is very likely.
Prescott is a bum there is no doubt about it but he throws a lot of body weight behind his punches. He likes to go for that big right hook and is a rangy fighter. Khan’s defence is weak and if he doesn’t keep that left hand up. Getting caught with that right hook will definitely sent him to the canvas.

Now I really don’t know how good this guys chin is because I have never seen him get hit but it can’t be good. How are know this? Because someone with a good chin plus respectable punching power will beat Khan. NO DOUBT!!.
So with that in mind there is a good chance Khan will get rid of him real quick but providing he can stay away, fight smart and pick his punches then knocking him down is a real possibility and for the value.
Well worth a punt IMO but I am going in with a low stake because like I said. The other guy is just another handpicked bum.


4 units total

4 @ 5.00 sky bet for khan to be knocked down at some point during the fight

Win. told you so. I didn't know that it was his new trainer rubio instead of warren that picked prescott to fight khan. If i had known then I would have slammed my house on him get knocked out. lol. anyway I really enjoyed seeing him knocked out and most importantly making some money for my readers.

 

Alex Arthur vs Nicky Cook world championship boxing

Well is big fight night. Alex Arthur is defending his title against Nicky cook. Last time Cookie had a shot at the title he got knocked down 5 times and was clearly fighting above his league against Steve Luevano. Whilst admitting Cookie is not a bad fighter domestically, it’s clear to be seen that domestic and world boxing is two different levels. Arthur IMO is not a world class boxer himself but nevertheless he is still one level up from Nicky Cook. There is nothing cook can do that Arthur cannot do better. A lot of experts are predicting Arthur to stop cook in late or middle rds and I can’t disagree with them. Known that this is a world title fight, one thing we can be certain of is an all out brawl and a lot of blood will be promised.
Cook cuts pretty easily and doesn’t take body shots too well. If he tries to keep his distance then he will just get picked off but Arthur is a body puncher, so if cook gets too close he will be bombarded with all sorts of combos and body shots.
Cook is also stepping up in weight to fight Arthur whom is fighting at his natural weight and with height, reach and weight advantage over cook I really cannot see this fight going the distance. When you got a British title on the line between two domestic fighters, 8 out of 10 times it will end within the distance. And I just can’t see Arthur getting stopped in his defence. Even money for a stoppage is excellent value at what is an 80% certainty.

8 units Arthur to stop cook @2.75 bet365.com

Lost arthur lost by decision but i have no doubt he through this fight. I have no repect for fighters like him and quite disgusted. If you had seen this fight you will know what I mean.

Thursday, September 04, 2008

 

Leeds Vs Crewe

I have been following leeds closely this season. They are a good team and no doubt IMO they deserve to be playing at a higher league. Last yr they narrowly missed out on promotion but have managed to keep whole of their best players and added some very good players in the summer to boost their promotion chances.
Beckford and Becchio is going to be a very good strike partnership this season and provided they stay healthy then I have no doubt they will be one of the contenders this season. They have started of pretty well but have yet to shift into top gears. The draw and lost game came against two of the better sides in the league, so those result really isn’t too bad at all.
Crewe is not a bad side, they will be a fairly solid home side this season but away from home I really don’t see them performing too well. Their strikers are nothing special and I struggle to see them creating too much. Away from their home crowd I just struggle to see them getting too motivated to try and get the goals.
I think the handicap is a little high for this game as I would prefer it to be -0.75 instead of -1 but I think Leeds will do the business this game.

8 units -1.0 @ 1.925

win result 5-2 easy money

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